Intel's Stock Just Did Something It Hasn't Done Since 2000

Intel spent most of the past decade as the punchline of the semiconductor industry. AMD ate its lunch. Nvidia lapped it in AI. Apple ditched its chips entirely. So when Intel's stock suddenly ripped past levels it hadn't touched since the dot-com bubble, the obvious question wasn't "how high can it go"—it was "who exactly is buying this, and why now?" Let's start with the facts. Intel shares have surged roughly 80% off their 2024 lows, a run fueled by a mix of government money, a new CEO's cost-cutting, and a wave of optimism that the company's foundry business might actually work. The U.S. government took an equity stake. Nvidia and SoftBank poured billions into a partnership. Wall Street analysts who spent years writing Intel's obituary are suddenly upgrading the stock. That's a remarkable turnaround story. It's also a story that deserves a cold shower. Here's what the bulls don't like to mention: Intel's core business—making the CPUs that go into PCs and servers—is still shrinking. Its foundry unit, the crown jewel of this turnaround narrative, lost billions last year and has yet to land a marquee external customer at scale. The company is spending enormous sums building fabs in Ohio and Arizona that won't produce meaningful revenue for years. And its most advanced manufacturing process, 18A, is promising on paper but has a history of delays that would make a train station in a snowstorm look punctual. So why is the stock up? Partly it's genuine progress—cutting costs, shedding dead weight, and getting real capital from partners who have skin in the game. Partly it's the government's willingness to treat Intel as a national security asset rather than just a company. And partly—let's be honest—it's momentum. When a beaten-down stock catches a narrative, it can run far past what the fundamentals justify. Who benefits from the hype? Plenty of people. Politicians get to claim they saved American chipmaking. Nvidia and SoftBank get cheap optionality on a competitor-turned-partner. Investment banks get fees. And retail investors who piled in late get the privilege of holding the bag if the foundry dream stalls. None of this means Intel is doomed. A company with its engineering talent, its fab footprint, and now a government backstop has a real shot at relevance. But "has a shot" and "is a screaming buy at these prices" are two very different claims. The stock has already priced in a lot of winning—and Intel still has to actually win. **The takeaway:** Treat this rally like what it is—a bet on a turnaround that hasn't happened yet, dressed up as a sure thing. The smart money got in early. If you're hearing about it now, you're probably not the smart money. Do your own homework, and don't confuse a good story with a good price.