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Intel's Stock Just Did Something It Hasn't Done in 50 Years

Persona #4 · Vol: 1000
Intel spent most of 2024 as the punchline of the chip industry. Its stock lost more than half its value, it suspended its dividend, it announced 15,000 layoffs, and it got booted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average after 25 years. Wall Street analysts lined up to write obituaries. Then, in 2025, something strange happened: Intel became one of the best-performing stocks in the entire S&P 500. If you blinked, you missed a rally that turned a "dead money" joke into one of the year's biggest comebacks. Here's what actually happened, and what it means if you own the stock — or you're thinking about buying in. The turning point was a leadership change. Intel brought in Lip-Bu Tan, a veteran semiconductor investor and former CEO of Cadence Design Systems, as its new chief executive. Unlike his predecessors, Tan didn't promise a quick fix. He cut spending, slowed some of Intel's most expensive factory expansions, and told investors the company would stop chasing every market at once. The market loved the honesty. The stock jumped double digits on the announcement alone. Then came the government. In August 2025, the U.S. government agreed to take roughly a 10% equity stake in Intel, converting existing grants under the CHIPS Act into actual ownership. It was an unprecedented move — Washington becoming a major shareholder in a private chipmaker. Critics called it industrial policy run amok. Investors called it a safety net. Either way, it put a floor under a stock that many had written off. The third piece was artificial intelligence. Intel had been left behind in the AI boom, watching Nvidia and AMD capture nearly all the upside. But Intel's foundry business — the division that makes chips for other companies — started landing real customers, including several unnamed AI startups and, reportedly, interest from major cloud providers looking for a second source of supply. If Intel can become a credible alternative to Taiwan's TSMC, the upside is enormous. So is the stock still a buy? That depends on your stomach. Intel remains a turnaround story, not a sure thing. Its foundry business is still losing billions per quarter. Its PC chip business faces brutal competition. And the bull case rests heavily on execution — something Intel has fumbled repeatedly over the past decade. But here's the money angle most headlines miss: Intel's stock is still trading well below its 2021 highs. If you bought at the bottom in 2024, you've already tripled your money in some accounts. If you're buying now, you're betting that Tan can do what three previous CEOs couldn't — make Intel relevant again. Our take: Intel is no longer a value trap, but it's not a slam dunk either. Treat it like what it is — a high-risk, high-reward bet on American manufacturing and one CEO's ability to pull off the most watched turnaround in tech. If you can't handle a 20% swing in a week, this stock isn't for you. If you can, the next two years will be fascinating to watch.
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