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Samsung's Foldable Lead Is Shrinking Fast — samsung foldable…
Persona #3 · Vol: 1000
Samsung spent years telling anyone who'd listen that foldables were the future. At Unpacked events, executives waved hinged phones like holy relics, promising a new era of mobile computing. For a while, they were right. Samsung basically invented the mainstream foldable market, and for five years it had almost no real competition in the United States.
That era is ending. And the company knows it.
The numbers tell a story Samsung would rather you not read too closely. According to multiple analyst firms, Samsung's share of the global foldable market has slid from north of 80% in 2022 to somewhere around 50% or lower today. Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, and Motorola have all eaten into the pie, mostly outside America. But the more interesting question isn't who's winning in China. It's what happens when Apple finally shows up.
The Apple Fold Is Coming. Eventually.
Apple has been granted patents for foldable displays for years—hinges, crease-reduction techniques, self-healing screen materials. The company has reportedly been working with suppliers on a book-style foldable that could arrive as soon as 2026 or 2027. Tim Cook's team rarely moves first. It moves best. And that's the threat Samsung should be sweating.
Here's the uncomfortable truth for Samsung: its foldables have gotten expensive without getting dramatically better. The Galaxy Z Fold 6 launched at $1,899. The crease is still visible. The battery life is fine, not great. The cameras lag behind Samsung's own Galaxy S Ultra line. Every year, the pitch is essentially "it folds," and every year, that pitch gets a little weaker.
Meanwhile, the competition is catching up on hardware. Honor's Magic V3 is thinner than Samsung's book-style foldable. Xiaomi's Mix Fold 4 is lighter. Google's Pixel 9 Pro Fold finally looks like a real product instead of a science experiment. None of these have Samsung's retail footprint in the U.S., but they've erased Samsung's engineering bragging rights.
Who Actually Benefits From the Hype?
Let's be honest about the incentives here. Samsung benefits from you believing foldables are the next big thing because it lets the company charge a $500 premium over a conventional flagship. Carriers benefit because foldables push people into expensive unlimited plans and device payment agreements. And the tech press benefits because "the future of phones" generates clicks.
The consumer? The consumer gets a heavier phone with a screen that scratches if you look at it wrong.
That's not to say foldables are a gimmick. They're genuinely useful for some people—multitaskers, frequent travelers, anyone who wants a tablet that fits in a pocket. But the category has been sold as inevitable, and inevitability is a marketing claim, not a fact.
What Apple's Entry Actually Means
When Apple launches a foldable, it won't need to be better than Samsung's. It just needs to be Apple's. The iPhone maker has a habit of arriving late and reframing the conversation—see smartwatches, see wireless earbuds, see tablets. If Apple ships a foldable iPhone, the question shifts from "should you buy a foldable?" to "which foldable should you buy?" And Samsung, for the first time, will have to compete on brand cachet against the one company that beats it on brand cachet.
The smart money says Samsung will respond with price cuts, aggressive trade-in offers, and a renewed push on software features. It has done this before. But the days of charging whatever it wants for a folding phone are numbered, and Samsung knows it.
Our Take
Samsung deserves credit for dragging foldables into the mainstream, but it has spent too long coasting on first-mover advantage while competitors caught up and prices stayed sky-high. Apple's arrival won't kill the category—it'll just force Samsung to finally earn your $1,900 instead of assuming it. If you're thinking about buying a foldable today, waiting a year might be the smartest move you make.