Samsung's Foldable Crown Is Slipping as Apple Circles

Samsung did not just launch a phone in 2019. It launched a category. The Galaxy Fold was clumsy, expensive, and prone to breaking, but it proved a screen could bend. For five years, Samsung owned that story. It sold roughly 70% of the world's foldables and set the pace everyone else chased. That era is ending, and the company knows it. Samsung's latest earnings calls have been unusually candid. Executives admitted the foldable market is "stagnating" and warned of "intensifying competition." Translation: the premium buyers who once lined up for a $1,800 Z Fold are holding onto their wallets. Foldable shipments fell in 2024 for the first time, and Samsung's share dropped below 50% in some quarters, according to market trackers like IDC and Counterpoint Research. Who is eating that lunch? Huawei in China, Honor in Europe, and a swarm of Chinese brands shipping thinner, lighter books that undercut Samsung on price. Motorola's Razr flip has quietly become a hit in the U.S. by selling nostalgia for $700 instead of $1,000. But the competitor Samsung fears most hasn't shipped a foldable yet. Apple has been granted patents for foldable displays, hinges, and self-healing screens for years. Supply-chain reports suggest a foldable iPhone could arrive as early as 2026, possibly a clamshell design that folds like a Razr. When Apple enters, it won't need to invent the category. It will just need to make it feel inevitable. That is the nightmare scenario for Samsung. Apple has a habit of showing up late with a polished version and taking the premium tier. The iPod wasn't the first MP3 player. The iPhone wasn't the first smartphone. The Apple Watch wasn't the first smartwatch. In each case, Apple let rivals bleed on early adoption, then claimed the mass market. Samsung's problem is twofold. First, foldables are still a hard sell to normal people. The crease, the durability worries, and the price tag keep them in the enthusiast lane. Second, Samsung's own Galaxy S Ultra phones have gotten so good and so big that they cannibalize the Fold. Why pay $1,800 to unfold when a $1,300 slab already does almost everything? The software story hasn't helped enough either. Samsung leaned on multitasking and a stylus to justify the Fold, but most apps still treat the inner screen like a stretched phone. Google's Android has improved foldable support, yet developers lag. Apple, by contrast, controls its hardware and software together. If Apple solves the app problem on day one, Samsung's head start evaporates. There's also the China factor. Samsung has effectively retreated from the world's largest phone market. Huawei's foldables now dominate there, and they're getting thinner and cheaper. That means Samsung's global share looks healthier than its competitive position actually is. None of this means foldables are doomed. Shipments are still growing in absolute terms, just slower. Samsung is expected to respond with a slimmer, lighter Z Fold and maybe a cheaper model. But the days of charging a luxury tax simply for bending glass are over. The real question is whether Samsung can make a foldable that ordinary people want, not just one that engineers admire. Apple is watching, patents in hand. **Closing opinion:** Samsung deserves credit for dragging a sci-fi idea into stores, but pioneers don't get to keep the trophy forever. If Apple ships a foldable iPhone that just works, Samsung's five-year lead becomes a footnote. The next two years decide whether Samsung is the innovator or the warm-up act.