Samsung's Foldable Lead Is Shrinking As Apple Circles

Samsung opened the foldable era in 2019 with the Galaxy Fold, a device that bent, creaked, and occasionally broke—but it worked. For six years, that first-mover status handed Samsung something close to a monopoly in a category it largely invented. Now the math is getting uncomfortable. Samsung controls roughly 50% of global foldable shipments, down from more than 80% in 2022, according to industry tracker estimates. Huawei has surged in China, Motorola's Razr line owns the affordable flip segment in the US, and Google's Pixel Fold gave Android loyalists a flagship alternative. The pie is growing, but Samsung's slice is getting thinner. The real threat, though, isn't any of them. It's Apple. ## The 800-Pound Phone That Hasn't Folded Yet Apple has no foldable iPhone. It has patents, supply-chain whispers, and a habit of arriving late and taking the category anyway. Remember when Apple "missed" the smartwatch? The tablet? Wireless earbuds? In each case, Apple let rivals educate the market, then shipped a polished product and captured the premium tier. Analysts now expect a foldable iPhone as early as 2026, with some reports pointing to a book-style design and a possible foldable iPad. If that timeline holds, Samsung has roughly two product cycles to lock in customers before the most valuable brand in consumer tech shows up. That matters for investors for a simple reason: foldables are the only real growth story in a smartphone market that has flatlined. Global phone shipments have been roughly stagnant for years. Foldables are the premium segment where average selling prices—and margins—climb. Samsung needs that margin. Apple wants it. ## What Samsung Has to Prove Now Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold and Z Flip lines still lead on hardware maturity. The hinge is better. The crease is fainter. The software handles multitasking in ways rivals struggle to match. But leadership in a niche doesn't guarantee leadership in a mainstream market. Two numbers to watch. First, foldable unit growth—if the category stalls before Apple arrives, Samsung loses its window. Second, Samsung's premium share versus Apple in the US, where Apple already takes the majority of high-end phone sales. A foldable iPhone wouldn't just compete; it would likely convert existing iPhone owners who have been waiting on the sidelines. There's also a pricing problem. Foldables remain expensive, often $1,700 and up. Apple has historically been the one company able to sell a premium price without apology. If anyone can make a $2,000 foldable feel normal, it's Cupertino—and that could reset what consumers expect to pay, squeezing Samsung's mid-tier foldable ambitions. ## The Bull Case for Samsung It's not doom. Samsung has a genuine head start in manufacturing scale, display technology—it supplies many of the foldable panels competitors use—and a broader portfolio spanning every price point. If the category eventually replaces the standard flagship phone, Samsung is positioned to profit whether or not it wins the brand war. But the easy years are over. Samsung spent half a decade alone at the front of the race. Apple hasn't entered yet, and Samsung's lead is already narrowing. That's the tell. **Our take:** Samsung's foldable business is still the category leader, but "first" is not the same as "safe." Investors should treat Apple's eventual entry not as a question of if, but of how much share it takes—and price Samsung's premium phone margins accordingly. The company that invented the foldable now has to defend it, and defense is a harder game than invention.