Existing home sales fell again last month, dropping to a pace not seen in more than a decade.
For anyone trying to buy or sell right now, the number isn't just a statistic.
It's a snapshot of a market stuck between stubbornly high prices and mortgage rates that refuse to budge.
The National Association of Realtors reported that contract closings on previously owned homes slid to their slowest annual rate since 2010.
That was the year the housing crash was still dragging the economy down.
This time, the culprit isn't a collapsed banking system.
It's a simple math problem that has frozen millions of households in place.
The typical 30-year fixed mortgage rate has been hovering near or above 7% for months.
Compare that to the roughly 3% rates that millions of homeowners locked in during 2020 and 2021.
If you bought or refinanced back then, selling now means trading a cheap loan for an expensive one.
Multiply that decision across the country and you get a market with almost nothing for sale.
Low inventory usually pushes prices up, and that's exactly what happened.
The median existing-home price is still higher than it was a year ago in many markets.
Buyers who do find a house are competing for a small pool of listings, often paying above asking.
Meanwhile, sellers who don't have to move are simply waiting.
The pain lands hardest on first-time buyers.
They don't have a low-rate mortgage to give up, but they also don't have home equity to roll into a down payment.
Every month that prices and rates stay elevated, the down payment goal gets further away.
There's a second group feeling the strain: people who need to move for a job, a divorce, or a growing family.
They sell, buy at today's rates, and hope to refinance later.
Rates need to come down enough to narrow the gap between what sellers owe and what buyers can afford.
And more homes need to hit the market, whether from builders, investors, or ordinary owners who finally decide they're ready to move.
Until then, expect more of the same: few listings, firm prices, and a lot of frustrated people on both sides of the deal.
Our take: this isn't a crash, and it isn't a boom.
It's a stalemate, and stalemates end slowly.
If you're buying this year, get preapproved early and be ready to move fast.
Final Thoughts
If you're selling, price realistically from day one.