Existing home sales jumped 3.4% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million, according to the National Association of Realtors.
That's the strongest monthly pace since December, and it broke a stretch of sluggish winter numbers that had sellers nervously cutting prices.
But before anyone pops champagne, here's the fine print: sales are still down roughly 3% from a year ago.
The average 30-year fixed rate dipped into the low 6% range earlier this spring, giving buyers a rare window where payments didn't feel quite so punishing.
Buyers who'd been sitting on the sidelines for a year finally blinked.
There were about 1.33 million homes for sale heading into spring, up more than 8% from a year earlier.
More choices mean fewer bidding wars, and fewer bidding wars mean sellers can't just name their price anymore.
The median existing-home price came in at $403,700 — still up year over year, but the frantic double-digit jumps are long gone.
If you're a seller, the message is blunt: price realistically or watch your listing rot.
Homes that sit more than 30 days are increasingly common, and price cuts are becoming routine in markets like Austin, Phoenix, and parts of Florida that got overheated during the pandemic boom.
If you're a buyer, the leverage is real — but limited.
Rates are still roughly double where they were four years ago, and that math hasn't changed.
On a $400,000 home with 20% down, a 6.5% rate means a monthly principal-and-interest payment near $2,020.
That gap is why so many first-time buyers remain stuck renting.
Renters aren't escaping the squeeze either.
Asking rents have cooled slightly in many metros, but they're still far above pre-2020 levels, and landlords have absorbed the new supply without slashing prices the way some forecasters predicted.
The real wild card going forward is the Federal Reserve.
If inflation keeps easing and the Fed cuts rates later this year, mortgage rates could follow — though not in lockstep, and not as dramatically as borrowers hope.
If inflation flares back up, the spring bump could look like a one-off blip.
One more thing worth watching: the "lock-in effect" is finally loosening.
Millions of homeowners who refused to sell because they'd be trading a 3% mortgage for a 6.5% one are starting to move anyway, driven by job changes, divorces, and growing families.
That's adding inventory, slowly but genuinely.
Our take: This report is a small green shoot, not a recovery.
The housing market is normalizing toward something that resembles 2018 — slower, more balanced, and less exciting — and that's probably healthier than the bidding-war chaos of 2021.
Final Thoughts
Buyers should shop now while competition is tame, but nobody should expect rates to tumble back to 3% anytime soon.