Mortgage rates moved again this week, and the shift is small enough to miss on a headline but large enough to change what you'd pay over 30 years.
According to the latest weekly survey from Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed rate sits near 6.3%, while the 15-year fixed hovers around 5.7%.
Those numbers are averages, not offers, and what you're actually quoted depends heavily on your credit score, down payment, and lender.
On a $400,000 loan at 6.3%, principal and interest runs about $2,476 a month.
At 7.3% — roughly where rates sat a year ago — the same loan costs about $2,743.
That's a difference of roughly $267 a month, or more than $96,000 across the life of the loan.
On a 15-year at 5.7%, the monthly payment jumps to about $3,314, but you'd pay far less total interest.
The gap between the average rate and what you can actually get is wider than most people assume.
Lenders price in risk, so a borrower with a 760 credit score and 20% down often sees a rate below the published average, while someone at 660 with 5% down may see one noticeably higher.
Shopping at least three lenders is the single most reliable way to shave a quarter point or more, and a quarter point on a $400,000 loan is worth roughly $60 a month.
Refinancing deserves a fresh look if you bought or refinanced during the 7% era.
The common rule of thumb is to refinance when you can cut your rate by at least 0.75 to 1 percentage point, but that ignores closing costs.
On a $350,000 balance, closing costs typically run $3,500 to $6,000.
Divide those costs by your monthly savings to see how many months it takes to break even.
If you plan to stay put longer than that, the math usually works.
Points are the other lever worth understanding.
Paying one point means paying 1% of the loan amount upfront to buy a lower rate.
On a $400,000 loan, one point costs $4,000.
Whether that's worth it depends on how long you'll keep the loan — the break-even is often six to eight years.
If there's a decent chance you'll sell or refinance before then, the upfront cash usually isn't the better deal.
Two things are easy to overlook right now.
First, rate locks: most lenders offer a free 30- to 60-day lock, and a float-down option can protect you if rates fall before closing, though it often carries a fee.
Second, escrow: your monthly payment includes taxes and insurance, which can rise even when your rate doesn't.
A payment that looks comfortable at closing can creep up within a year.
For anyone sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to drop back to 3%, that's probably not a realistic plan.
The Federal Reserve doesn't set mortgage rates directly, and its policy moves influence them only indirectly through bond markets.
Waiting has a cost too — every month of delay is a month of rent or a month of a higher payment you could have been chipping away at.
The honest takeaway: rates today aren't great, but they're meaningfully better than they were a year ago, and the spread between the best and worst offers is where real money hides.
Get three quotes, ask for a full Loan Estimate from each, and compare the total cost — not just the rate.
Our view: for most buyers, the smartest move isn't timing the market, it's shopping the lender.
Final Thoughts
A single afternoon of comparison calls can be worth more than waiting six months for a rate that may not arrive.