The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales rose 3.2% in February compared with January, climbing to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 4.26 million units.
In reality, it's the weakest February reading in years once you adjust for the pandemic-era distortions, and it's barely a blip above the near-freeze we saw through most of 2024.
Here's the part that matters for your wallet: prices didn't fall.
The median existing-home price came in around $398,400, up roughly 3.8% from a year earlier.
That's the frustrating math of this market.
Fewer people are buying, yet homes are still getting more expensive, because the inventory that exists is skewed toward larger, pricier houses and because sellers who locked in 3% mortgages years ago simply aren't listing unless they have to.
Mostly people with cash, people relocating for work, and buyers who can stomach a mortgage rate near 6.8% on a 30-year fixed loan.
On a $400,000 home with 20% down, that rate pencils out to roughly $2,100 a month before taxes and insurance, according to standard mortgage calculators.
A 1% rate drop would shave about $230 off that payment, which is why so many shoppers are waiting on the sidelines for the Fed to blink.
First-time buyers are getting squeezed hardest.
They made up only about 31% of sales last month, well below the historical norm of around 40%.
If you're renting and trying to save, the numbers genuinely don't work in many metros, and that's not a personal failing.
It's a supply problem that's been building since 2008.
If you're shopping this spring, three practical moves can help.
First, get a mortgage pre-approval before you tour anything, so sellers take you seriously in a bidding war.
Second, ask about seller-paid rate buy-downs, which are more common than they were two years ago because sellers are nervous.
Third, look at homes that have sat on the market for 30-plus days.
Those listings are where the negotiating room actually lives right now.
For sellers, the message is less cheerful than headlines suggest.
Yes, you still have pricing power in most markets.
But the days of 20 offers over asking are largely gone outside a handful of Northeast and Midwest metros.
Overpricing by even 5% now often means three months of showings and a price cut, which costs you more than pricing right on day one.
The bigger picture is a market grinding through a slow thaw rather than a crash or a boom.
Inventory is creeping up, which is genuinely good news for buyers, but it's coming mostly from new construction and from sellers who can't wait any longer.
Until mortgage rates drop meaningfully or more existing owners list their homes, expect more of the same: modest sales, stubborn prices, and a lot of frustrated Americans refreshing listing apps.
Our take: the housing market isn't broken, it's just expensive and slow, and that's arguably worse for your sanity than a clean crash would be.
If you're buying this year, focus on what you can control, your credit score, your down payment, and your willingness to negotiate.
Final Thoughts
Waiting for a perfect rate that may not arrive could cost you more than the rate itself.