The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales climbed 3.4% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.28 million.
That doesn't sound like much until you see the year-over-year number: sales are up roughly 10% compared with a year ago, one of the strongest annual gains in more than a decade.
For anyone who has spent the past three years watching mortgage rates yo-yo between 6% and 8%, this is the first real evidence that the frozen housing market is starting to thaw.
Buyers who sat on the sidelines are signing contracts again, and sellers who refused to give up their 3% pandemic-era mortgages are finally listing.
The catch is what all that activity is doing to prices.
The median existing-home price hit $414,100 in April, up 4.8% from a year earlier and a record for the month.
Inventory has improved to about a 3.8-month supply, but that's still well below the 6-month level that typically signals a balanced market.
In plain terms, there still aren't enough homes for the number of people who want them.
That mismatch is why buyers shouldn't expect relief at the closing table.
In many metro areas, well-priced homes in decent school districts are drawing multiple offers within days.
A seller who priced realistically in 2022 and got zero showings is now fielding offers above asking.
It's a whiplash reversal that has caught both agents and appraisers off guard.
Mortgage rates have settled into the low-to-mid 6% range instead of spiking past 8%, which shaved hundreds of dollars off typical monthly payments.
Meanwhile, rents in many cities kept climbing, and a growing number of first-time buyers decided that paying a mortgage beats paying a landlord whose payment also went up.
There's also a quieter force at work: life keeps happening.
People get new jobs, have kids, get divorced, retire.
Those events force moves regardless of what the Fed does.
After two years of suppressing those moves, the backlog is finally releasing into the market.
For sellers, the playbook is straightforward.
Price based on this spring's comps, not last fall's fear.
Overpricing by 5% in a market with 3.8 months of supply can leave a listing stale for months while the house down the street sells in a weekend.
For buyers, the math still favors getting pre-approved before touring anything.
Sellers are weighing offers on financing certainty as much as price, and a clean pre-approval letter from a lender who has actually verified your documents carries more weight than a bigger number that might fall apart at underwriting.
The wild card remains the Federal Reserve.
If inflation cools further and the Fed cuts rates later this year, mortgage rates could drift toward 6% or below, which would pull even more buyers off the fence and push competition higher.
If inflation reheats, the whole rally stalls.
Either way, the era of the totally frozen market appears to be ending.
That's good news for anyone who needs to move and frustrating news for anyone hoping for a bargain.
Our take: this spring's numbers are a reminder that housing doesn't wait for perfect conditions.
Rates in the 6s aren't historically high, and waiting for the 4% mortgages of 2021 is a bet that may never pay off.
Final Thoughts
If you're ready to move, run your own numbers instead of the headline ones.