Existing home sales fell again last month, and the number that matters most is the one nobody puts in the headline.
Resales dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of roughly 4 million units, a level the market hasn't touched with any consistency since the aftermath of the housing crash.
For anyone who bought in 2021 or is trying to sell now, that single figure explains a lot of the frustration.
Roughly 85% of current homeowners hold mortgages under 6%, with a huge share locked in below 4%.
Moving means trading a $1,400 payment for a $2,600 one on a comparable house.
Most people look at that spread and decide to stay put, which keeps inventory historically thin even though demand hasn't disappeared.
Buyers, meanwhile, are stuck between high prices and rates near 7%.
The median existing-home price is still climbing in many metros, not falling, because the homes that do list are skewed toward higher-end properties.
First-time buyers are getting squeezed hardest, and they now make up one of the smallest shares of purchases in decades.
Markets in Texas, Florida, and parts of the Mountain West have seen inventory climb and price cuts become normal.
The Midwest and Northeast remain tight, where a modest listing can still draw multiple offers within days.
If you're shopping, your experience depends heavily on zip code, not national averages.
For sellers, the old playbook is expired.
Overpricing and waiting for a bidding war is a losing strategy in most markets now.
Homes that sit past three weeks tend to sell below list, and buyers are aggressively negotiating repairs and closing costs.
Pricing at or slightly under comparable sales is quietly the smarter move.
With so few homes trading hands, would-be sellers stay in their current houses, and would-be buyers stay in rentals longer.
That keeps rental demand elevated and gives landlords less reason to soften.
The lock-in effect ripples through the entire housing chain.
A meaningful thaw would require one of two things: mortgage rates dropping toward the low 6s, or incomes catching up to prices.
Watch the spring selling season closely, because that's when inventory typically surges and we'll learn whether this is a slow market or a frozen one.
Our take: this is a patience market, not a panic one.
If you don't have to move, waiting costs you little, and if you do have to move, price realistically and negotiate hard.
Final Thoughts
The era of assuming your house appreciates 20% a year is over, and honestly, that's healthier for everyone.