Existing home sales jumped 3.4% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million, according to the National Association of Realtors.
That doesn't sound like much until you see the year-over-year number: sales are up 6.1% from a year ago, the largest annual gain since 2010.
After nearly three years of a frozen housing market, buyers are finally moving again.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has drifted down toward the mid-6% range, down from a peak near 8% in late 2023.
For a buyer putting 20% down on a $400,000 home, that drop saves roughly $300 a month compared to the worst of the rate spike.
But here's the catch: inventory is rising too, and that's doing more work than rates.
There were 1.24 million homes for sale heading into spring, up 17% from a year ago.
In many Sun Belt metros, sellers who bought during the 2021 frenzy are now listing at prices that would have been unthinkable two years ago — and sitting on them. "More supply is giving buyers something they haven't had in years: leverage," said one NAR economist on the release call.
In 2022, sellers laughed at those requests.
The median existing home price hit $398,400 in February, up 3.8% year over year.
That's the 20th straight month of annual gains.
So the affordability crunch hasn't vanished — it's just shifted.
You're paying a similar price, but a smaller monthly check.
They made up 31% of sales in February, up from 26% a year earlier.
Still below the historical norm of about 40%, but the trend matters more than the level.
What this means for you depends on which side of the table you're on.
If you're selling, the "name your price" era is over.
Overpriced listings are sitting for 60-plus days in most markets, and price cuts are becoming normal again.
If you're buying, you have more choices than any spring since 2019, and sellers who need to move are motivated.
Renters watching from the sidelines should pay attention too.
Rising sales volume eventually pulls renters into homeownership, which can cool rental demand in some markets.
It won't happen overnight, but the pressure valve is starting to release.
If mortgage rates climb back above 7%, this rally stalls fast.
If they hold in the 6s, expect the spring selling season to be the busiest since the pandemic boom.
Our take: this isn't a bubble re-inflating — it's a market finally finding its footing.
The buyers winning right now are the ones who shopped rates as hard as they shopped homes.
Final Thoughts
Get pre-approved with at least two lenders, and don't be afraid to walk away from a seller who won't negotiate.