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Municipal Bonds Are Quietly Paying More Than Treasuries Again

Persona #1 · Vol: 0

Income investors who wrote off municipal bonds after the 2022 rate shock may want to take another look.

Yields on high-grade muni debt have climbed back to levels that, after taxes, beat comparable Treasuries for many households — a shift that rarely lasts long once money starts moving.

A top-rated 10-year muni recently yielded around 3.4%, according to Municipal Bond Investors Association data.

For someone in the 32% federal bracket, that's a taxable-equivalent yield of roughly 5% — meaningfully above the 4.2% on a 10-year Treasury note.

The gap widens in high-tax states like California and New York, where stacked state and local rates push the effective advantage past a full percentage point.

What's driving the higher payouts is a supply-and-demand mismatch.

States and cities have been issuing less debt than in past years, while banks and insurers — historically huge muni buyers — have pulled back.

Fewer buyers chasing fewer bonds should push prices up and yields down, but heavy redemptions from retail funds have kept a steady stream of bonds hitting the market, holding yields elevated.

There's a catch that trips up first-time buyers.

Munis trade in a fragmented over-the-counter market, so pricing is opaque and spreads can be wide.

Buying individual bonds through a broker often means paying a markup of 1% to 2%, which can wipe out a year's worth of extra yield.

For most households, a low-cost muni bond fund or ETF is the cleaner route.

Tax rules also matter more than people expect.

Muni interest is federally tax-free, but it can trigger the Social Security taxation formula and counts toward net investment income tax thresholds in some cases.

Someone near a Medicare IRMAA cliff could see a "tax-free" bond raise their Part B premium.

Run the numbers or talk to a tax pro before shifting a large allocation.

Default risk, meanwhile, is not zero but remains low for investment-grade issuers.

Fitch reported that overall municipal default rates stayed under 0.2% in 2024, concentrated in small, troubled projects rather than broad state and city debt.

That's a different risk profile than corporate high yield, though it doesn't make any single bond safe.

If the Federal Reserve cuts short-term rates further, muni yields typically follow, and the after-tax advantage shrinks.

Investors who have been parked in money market funds earning north of 4% may find those yields falling faster than muni payouts.

The takeaway: for high-bracket savers with a multi-year horizon, the current muni market offers a rare combination of decent income and tax efficiency.

Final Thoughts

Just don't chase it through a full-service broker's markup.

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