So did the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which is the number that quietly sets the tone for everything from car loans to the rate your savings account pays.
The Federal Reserve hasn't cut its benchmark rate again, and markets that spent January pricing in three cuts this year are now debating whether they'll get one.
Here's the part that matters for your household: the federal funds rate is what banks charge each other overnight, but it's also the anchor for the prime rate, and the prime rate is what your credit card APR is built on.
When the Fed holds steady, your card doesn't get cheaper.
The average new-card APR has hovered near record highs for months, and it takes weeks for any cut to show up in your statement anyway.
The gap between what the Fed does and what you pay is where the real story lives.
Lenders are quick to reprice upward and slow to move down.
A 0.25% cut on a $6,000 balance saves you roughly a dollar a month.
That's not nothing, but it's not the relief people imagine when they hear "the Fed is cutting." Meanwhile, savers got used to 4% and 5% yields on money market funds and high-yield savings.
Every month the Fed waits is another month those yields stay decent, which is genuinely good news if you're parking an emergency fund.
It's less good if you're carrying debt, and a lot of Americans are doing both at once.
They follow long-term bond yields more than the Fed's overnight rate, which is why 30-year fixed rates can climb on a day when the Fed does nothing at all.
The Fed's own projections show officials split on how much cutting is appropriate this year.
Translation: nobody knows, and anyone telling you they do is selling something.
Grocery prices are the wild card in this whole conversation.
The Fed watches inflation data closely, and food costs have been one of the stickiest categories.
If those numbers stay warm, cuts get pushed further out.
If they cool, you might see a little relief by fall.
Either way, your rent isn't waiting for a press conference.
So what do you actually do with this information?
Pay down variable-rate debt first, because that's where the Fed's decisions hit hardest.
Shop savings yields if you're holding cash, since banks that were paying 5% may quietly trim to 4.25% without announcing it.
And treat any headline about rate cuts as a forecast, not a promise.
The uncomfortable truth is that the Fed's rate is a blunt tool aimed at the whole economy, while your budget is a specific thing with specific numbers.
They overlap, but they don't move together. **Our take:** The Fed gets blamed for things it only partly controls and credited for relief that shows up as pocket change.
Final Thoughts
Watch your own APR and your own savings yield instead of the cable news chyron, because those are the only numbers you can actually change.