Existing home sales climbed 2.4% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million, according to the National Association of Realtors.
It's the strongest reading since last fall, and it breaks a stretch of sluggish activity that had sellers sweating through the winter.
But before you read this as a green light, look at what's actually driving the number.
The median existing-home price hit $398,400, up 3.9% from a year ago.
Inventory rose to a 3.5-month supply, the highest for February since 2020.
More homes are sitting, and sellers are starting to blink.
That combination — more listings, stubbornly high prices, and buyers who can still barely afford the monthly payment — is the whole story of this spring market.
Mortgage rates have hovered in the low 6% range for weeks, down from the 7%-plus peaks of 2023 and 2024.
That drop pulled some sidelined buyers back in, but it didn't fix the math.
Here's the math that matters to your wallet.
On a $400,000 home with 20% down at 6.3%, the principal and interest payment runs about $1,980.
Add property taxes, insurance, and HOA fees in most metros, and you're easily past $2,600 a month.
At a 7.2% rate — where we were not long ago — that same loan costs roughly $2,170, a difference of nearly $200 a month, or about $2,400 a year.
That gap is why so many buyers are still renting and waiting.
It's also why sellers who bought in 2020 or 2021, when rates were under 3.5%, are reluctant to list.
Roughly 60% of outstanding mortgages carry a rate below 4%, which means moving usually means trading a cheap loan for an expensive one.
That "lock-in effect" is easing, but slowly.
If you're shopping this spring, a few practical moves matter more than headlines.
Get a full loan estimate from at least three lenders, not just a rate quote over the phone — the fees buried on page two can swing your closing costs by thousands.
Ask specifically about seller concessions.
With inventory up, more sellers are covering closing costs or buying down your rate, and that's often worth more than a small price cut.
If you already own and want to refinance, run the break-even math.
Closing costs on a refi typically run 2% to 5% of the loan balance.
Dropping from 7% to 6.3% on a $350,000 balance saves about $160 a month, so a $9,000 refi takes roughly four and a half years to pay off.
If you plan to move before then, it may not pencil out.
First-time buyers should also check whether their state or city offers down payment assistance.
These programs are underused, and many now pair with below-market rates.
A housing counselor approved by HUD can walk you through eligibility for free.
Our take: this report is a sign of a market thawing, not a market getting cheap.
Prices are still climbing, and affordability is still stretched.
Final Thoughts
The smart play is to shop lenders hard, negotiate concessions while sellers are motivated, and treat any rate you're quoted as a starting point, not a final answer.