The 30-year mortgage rate is hovering near 6.5%, and starter homes in most metros still list for double what they did in 2019.
So when renters punch their numbers into an online rent-vs-buy calculator, a lot of them get the same verdict: keep renting.
They are just answering a question you did not ask.
Most tools compare a single monthly payment.
A mortgage on a comparable house, after taxes and insurance, runs $2,400.
Rent wins, the screen says, and the tab closes.
What that math skips is the part of the rent check that vanishes forever.
A mortgage payment is part interest, part principal, and the principal portion is forced savings you get back when you sell.
On a $350,000 loan at 6.5%, roughly $250 of the first payment goes to principal.
By year ten, that number clears $700 a month.
Then the calculators bury the ugly line items.
Closing costs run 2% to 5% of the purchase price.
Maintenance eats 1% to 2% of the home's value every year, and a new roof or HVAC system does not care about your budget.
Property taxes and insurance have climbed hard in Florida, Texas, and Colorado.
Selling costs slice another 6% off the top.
That is why the break-even point matters more than the monthly gap.
In most markets today, buying only pulls ahead of renting after five to seven years of ownership.
Move sooner and the transaction costs can wipe out whatever equity you built.
It climbed more than 20% nationally between 2021 and 2023, and landlords in tight markets keep pushing.
A mortgage payment on a fixed-rate loan stays flat for 30 years while your income ideally rises with inflation.
That is the inflation hedge nobody puts in the calculator.
There is also the opportunity cost nobody mentions.
A down payment of $70,000 invested in a boring index fund has historically grown, and renters who invest the difference often come out ahead.
Run the calculator, then run it again with realistic numbers: 3% annual rent increases, 1.5% maintenance, 2% property tax growth, and a seven-year timeline.
If buying still wins, you are probably ready.
The calculator cannot price the thing you actually want, which is a landlord who cannot raise your payment or sell the place out from under you.
That certainty has a dollar value, and only you can assign it.
Final Thoughts
Run the numbers, then decide what the spreadsheet cannot.