Existing home sales climbed 3.4% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.08 million, according to the National Association of Realtors.
It marks the strongest pace since December 2021, and the third straight monthly gain.
After nearly three years of frozen activity, buyers are finally moving again.
But here's the catch: they're paying more to do it.
The median existing-home price hit $396,900 in January, up 4.8% from a year earlier and the highest January reading on record.
Inventory stood at 3.5 months of supply — better than the pandemic-era lows, still well short of the six months that signals a balanced market.
What's driving the thaw is a slow slide in mortgage rates.
The average 30-year fixed rate has hovered in the low 6% range after peaking near 8% in late 2023.
For a buyer putting 20% down on a $400,000 home, that difference is roughly $400 a month.
It's not cheap money — it's just less painful money.
The lock-in effect is easing too, but unevenly.
Millions of homeowners still sit on 3% mortgages and have little reason to sell.
Yet life happens: job relocations, divorces, growing families.
Sellers who bought in 2020 and 2021 are increasingly accepting that trading a 3% rate for a 6.5% rate is the cost of moving.
First-time buyers, however, remain squeezed.
They accounted for just 28% of January sales, well below the historical norm near 40%.
Many are being outbid by cash buyers and repeat purchasers who already have equity to roll over.
In practical terms, the market is rewarding people who already own.
Sales jumped in the Midwest and Northeast, where prices are comparatively moderate.
The South, which saw the biggest pandemic boom, is still digesting inventory.
Parts of Florida and Texas have flipped toward buyers, with sellers cutting prices and offering concessions like rate buydowns and closing-cost credits.
If you're shopping right now, that concession trend is your leverage.
A seller-funded 2-1 buydown can shave hundreds off your payment in year one, and many listing agents will negotiate rather than lose a deal in a slow season.
Get pre-approved before you tour, and don't assume the asking price is the real price.
Pricing has to be realistic from day one.
Overpriced listings are sitting for 60 days or more while correctly priced homes get multiple offers within a week.
The gap between a well-priced home and an optimistic one has never been wider.
The bigger picture: this is a slow normalization, not a boom.
Rates near 6.5% keep affordability stretched, and wage growth hasn't fully caught up to five years of price gains.
But more transactions mean more options, more negotiation room, and fewer bidding wars in most markets.
Final Thoughts
For anyone who sat out 2023 and 2024 waiting for the perfect moment, the perfect moment was never coming — a workable one finally is.