The classic American advice to buy a home is cracking under the weight of 7% mortgage rates.
In nearly half of the largest US metros, renting a comparable place and investing the difference now costs less over a five-year stretch.
That's the takeaway from a fresh run of the New York Times rent-versus-buy calculator, which crunches mortgage rates, property taxes, maintenance, and expected investment returns.
Set against today's numbers, the math flips in favor of renters in cities including Austin, Seattle, Denver, and much of coastal California.
A $450,000 home with 20% down at a 7.2% rate runs about $2,450 a month in principal and interest alone.
Toss in taxes, insurance, and roughly 1% of the home's value for upkeep, and the true monthly cost lands near $3,400.
If a similar rental goes for $2,600, the renter banks the $800 difference.
That gap matters because a mortgage locks you into a fixed payment, but it also buries thousands in interest that builds no equity.
In the early years of a loan, most of your check goes to the bank, not to you.
The break-even timeline is the number most buyers ignore.
In pricey markets, it can take seven to ten years of ownership just to recoup closing costs, agent commissions, and the interest paid up front.
Sell before then, and you often walk away with less than you put in.
The calculator also bakes in a reality plenty of owners learn the hard way.
A furnace dies in January, a roof leaks in April, and none of it waits for your budget.
Renters hand those bills to the landlord.
If you plan to stay put for a decade, have a stable income, and want a fixed housing cost in retirement, ownership still stacks up.
The math shifts again the moment rates dip toward 6% or home prices cool.
The honest move is to run your own numbers before you tour a single open house.
Drop your actual rent, your target price, your down payment, and your local tax rate into a calculator.
The answer is rarely the same for two families on the same street.
Our take: the rent-versus-buy question has no universal winner, and anyone selling you a one-line answer is guessing.
Run the numbers for your city, your timeline, and your savings rate, then decide with your eyes open.
Final Thoughts
For a lot of Americans right now, renting is not throwing money away.