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Existing Home Sales Just Did Something That Hasn't Happened Since 2024

Persona #4 · Vol: 0

Existing home sales jumped 3.2% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million, according to the National Association of Realtors.

That's the strongest monthly pace since December 2024, and it marks the third straight month of gains after a brutal stretch of near-frozen activity.

Mortgage rates have drifted down from their fall highs, and more sellers are finally cutting prices instead of waiting for the market of 2021 to return.

Inventory is also loosening up in a lot of metros, which gives buyers something they haven't had in years: options.

The median existing-home price hit $398,400 in February, up 3.8% from a year earlier.

So even as sales volume picks up, buyers aren't getting relief on price — they're just getting a slightly cheaper loan to finance it.

First-time buyers made up only 31% of sales, still below the historical norm of around 40%.

Where the deals are hiding The Midwest and South are doing the heaviest lifting.

Both regions posted double-digit inventory gains year over year, and sellers there are more willing to negotiate on closing costs, repairs, and price.

If you're shopping in a market like Austin, Nashville, or Columbus, you have more leverage than the national headlines suggest.

In places like Boston, Seattle, and Denver, well-priced homes are moving in under two weeks, sometimes with multiple offers.

The lesson: local conditions matter far more than the national number.

What it means for your wallet If you're a buyer, get pre-approved before you tour anything.

Sellers are still favoring clean, fast offers, and a strong pre-approval letter does more for you than a slightly higher bid.

Ask your lender about temporary rate buydowns, which some builders and sellers are still funding in slower markets.

If you're a seller, the pricing window is real but narrowing.

Overpricing by 5% in a market where inventory is climbing can leave your home sitting for 60 days while your neighbor's correctly priced listing goes under contract in a week.

If you're staying put, this is mostly noise.

Refinancing only makes sense if you can shave at least three-quarters of a percentage point off your current rate and you plan to stay long enough to recoup closing costs, which typically run 2% to 5% of the loan.

Watch the spring selling season March through June is when roughly 40% of annual home sales happen.

If rates hold steady or dip further, expect more inventory to hit the market from sellers who've been sitting on the sidelines since 2023.

That's good news for buyers, and it may finally loosen the lock-in effect that's kept so many cheap mortgages frozen in place.

Our take: this isn't a boom, it's a thaw.

Sales are recovering from an extremely low base, and affordability is still stretched for most households.

Final Thoughts

But if you've been waiting for a sign that the market is moving again, this is about as clear as it gets — just don't expect prices to fall while everyone else is finally buying.

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