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Stock Market Swings Are Back, and Your 401(k) Is Watching

Persona #4 ยท Vol: 2000

The first few months of this year have reminded investors of something they forgot during the long bull run: markets can go down, and they can do it quickly.

After a stretch of record highs, major indexes have lurched through a series of sharp down days, wiping out trillions in paper wealth and sending retirement balances on a rollercoaster.

If you peeked at your 401(k) last week and felt a knot in your stomach, you're not alone.

Roughly six in ten American workers hold at least some retirement money in stocks, often through target-date funds they never actively chose.

For many households, this is the first real test of nerves since the pandemic selloff.

Here's the part that rarely makes headlines: selling now locks in losses.

Investors who bailed during past downturns and waited for "calm" to return often missed the strongest rebound days, which tend to cluster right after the worst ones.

A widely cited study from academics at Harvard and other schools found that missing just the ten best market days over two decades can cut your final portfolio nearly in half.

So what should a normal person actually do?

Money you need in the next two or three years shouldn't be riding on stocks at all โ€” that belongs in a high-yield savings account or short-term Treasury bills, where you can currently earn north of 4%.

Money you won't touch for a decade has time to recover, and history says it usually does.

Next, look at fees, because they quietly eat returns whether markets rise or fall.

A 1% annual expense ratio on a $50,000 balance costs you $500 a year, compounded over decades into tens of thousands of dollars.

Index funds and many target-date funds now charge under 0.10%, and switching is usually a five-minute click inside your plan's portal.

If the volatility is keeping you up at night, that's a signal your stock allocation is too aggressive โ€” not a signal to panic-sell.

Trimming a bit and steering new contributions toward bonds or cash can calm your nerves without dumping everything at once.

Automatic rebalancing, if your plan offers it, does this for you.

One more thing worth checking: your cash sitting in a plan's default money market fund may be earning far less than what's available elsewhere.

It's boring, but it's often the single easiest win in personal finance. **Our take:** Market drops are uncomfortable, but they're the price of admission for the long-term returns that make retirement possible.

Final Thoughts

The investors who come out ahead are rarely the ones who predict the swings โ€” they're the ones who keep contributing, keep fees low, and don't flinch when the screen turns red.

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