Existing home sales climbed again last month, and the headlines are already calling it a comeback.
The National Association of Realtors reported sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 4 million, up roughly 3% from the prior month and higher than a year ago.
That's the first time in years the market has managed back-to-back gains like this, and it's giving a lot of people permission to believe the housing freeze is finally thawing.
Here's the part the victory laps skip: we're comparing today to a stretch so brutal that almost any number looks like progress.
Sales are still running well below the pre-pandemic pace of roughly 5.3 million a year.
A market that fell off a cliff and bounced once hasn't recovered.
More sellers are listing, and homes are sitting longer, which means buyers finally have something they didn't have in 2021 and 2022: leverage.
In many metros, buyers are negotiating repairs, asking for closing cost credits, and even getting sellers to shave the price.
That's a real shift, and it's the single biggest story here.
If you already own a home with a 3% mortgage, you have almost no reason to sell unless you have to.
That locks up supply and props up prices for everyone else.
If you're renting and trying to buy, you're still staring at a median price near record highs and a mortgage rate hovering in the mid-6% range.
A little more inventory doesn't fix a payment that's still hundreds of dollars above what it was four years ago.
The Midwest and Northeast are holding up better than the Sun Belt, where builders overproduced and investors pulled back.
In parts of Texas, Florida, and Arizona, sellers are cutting prices and offering rate buydowns just to get to the closing table.
A national "recovery" headline can hide a local bloodbath.
Real estate agents, mortgage lenders, and homebuilders all make more money when volume rises, so their forecasts lean optimistic by design.
The NAR is a trade group, not a neutral referee.
When it calls a trend, ask who's paying for the press release.
If you're buying, get pre-approved before you shop and treat seller concessions as the real discount, not the sticker price.
If you're selling, price realistically on day one, because overpriced listings are the ones collecting dust.
If you're staying put, none of this changes your monthly payment, and that's fine.
The honest read is that housing is normalizing, not booming.
More choices, slower sales, and softer pricing in some markets is a healthier market than the bidding-war circus of a few years ago.
Final Thoughts
Just don't let a single monthly report convince you the affordability crisis is over.