Existing home sales climbed 3.4% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million, according to the National Association of Realtors.
That's the strongest pace since December, and it broke a stretch of sluggish winter readings that had sellers bracing for another dud spring.
On the surface, that sounds like the housing market is finally thawing.
Look closer, though, and the number tells a messier story — one where buyers are still stretched, sellers are still stubborn, and nobody is getting a deal.
The median existing-home price hit $403,700, up 2.7% from a year earlier and a record for any March.
So even as more homes change hands, buyers aren't catching a break on price.
Inventory did improve to a 3.9-month supply, but that's still below the roughly six months that economists consider balanced.
Mostly sellers who locked in low mortgage rates years ago and can now cash out equity.
And real estate agents, who earn commissions on volume whether or not their clients feel good about the terms.
First-time buyers, meanwhile, are getting squeezed from both ends.
Mortgage rates hovering near 6.5% mean a $400,000 loan costs roughly $2,530 a month before taxes and insurance — hundreds more than the same house would have cost four years ago.
Add student loans, child care, and grocery bills that haven't exactly retreated, and the math gets ugly fast.
There's another wrinkle worth watching: the share of sales going to cash buyers.
In many markets it's still running above 25%, which means a chunk of transactions aren't even sensitive to interest rates.
Those buyers are often investors or downsizing boomers paying in full.
Regular wage earners competing against them are at a structural disadvantage, and no Fed cut fixes that overnight.
More inventory from builders finishing spec homes, and any meaningful dip in rates that convinces hesitant sellers to list rather than cling to their 3% mortgages.
The so-called lock-in effect has been the single biggest drag on supply, and it loosens slowly, not all at once.
For anyone shopping right now, the practical takeaway is unglamorous: get fully underwritten before you tour, expect competition on anything priced well, and budget for insurance and property taxes that have jumped in many Sun Belt metros.
A pre-approval letter is table stakes; a pre-approval that a seller's agent trusts is the actual weapon.
Renters watching this data shouldn't assume relief is coming.
When sales volume rises but supply stays tight, landlords keep pricing power, especially in cities where new apartment construction is slowing.
The honest read is that this is a market healing in inches, not leaps.
One decent month doesn't undo three years of affordability damage, and the people celebrating loudest tend to be the ones collecting the checks.
If you're buying this spring, run your own numbers instead of trusting a headline.
Final Thoughts
If you're selling, price realistically — overpriced listings are still sitting, no matter what the aggregate data says.