Existing home sales jumped 2.0% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million, according to the National Association of Realtors.
It's the strongest reading since late last year and a genuine surprise to economists who expected a flat month.
After nearly three years of a frozen housing market, buyers are finally showing up again.
But here's the catch that matters for your wallet: the median existing-home price hit $398,400, up 3.8% from a year ago.
That's the 20th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains.
Inventory did improve to a 3.5-month supply, but that's still below the 5-6 months that economists consider balanced. **What's actually driving the thaw** Two things are pulling buyers off the sidelines.
First, mortgage rates have settled into the low-to-mid 6% range after spiking above 7% in 2023 and 2024.
Second, more sellers are finally listing, partly because life events like job relocations, divorces, and retirements don't wait for perfect rates.
First-time buyers made up 31% of sales, up from 26% a year ago.
Investors, meanwhile, pulled back to 16% of purchases, down from 21% last year.
When investors step aside, regular families face less competition and fewer all-cash offers blowing past their budgets. **Where the pain is still real** Affordability remains brutal.
A buyer putting 20% down on a $398,400 home faces a monthly principal-and-interest payment of roughly $1,940 at a 6.5% rate.
Add taxes, insurance, and HOA fees, and many households are looking at $2,500 or more per month.
That's still out of reach for a lot of families earning the median income.
Rents aren't falling fast enough to help either.
In many metros, the gap between renting and buying has narrowed but hasn't closed.
If you're saving for a down payment, the math is getting slightly better, but it's not a slam dunk. **What this means if you're buying or selling** If you're selling, you've got more negotiating room than you did two years ago, but pricing aggressively still backfires.
Homes that sit more than 30 days typically sell for less than asking.
If you're buying, get pre-approved before you tour anything.
Sellers are still favoring clean, certain offers.
And ask your lender about assumable mortgages and buy-down points.
On a $350,000 loan, buying down a full point can save roughly $200 a month, which adds up fast.
If you're refinancing, watch the 10-year Treasury yield, not just the Fed's rate decisions.
Mortgage rates track the bond market, and the bond market moves on inflation data and jobs reports.
A single cool inflation print can shave a quarter-point off rates in a week. **The bottom line** The housing market isn't fixed, but it's no longer frozen.
More inventory and steadier rates give buyers a real window that didn't exist a year ago.
Sellers who price realistically are still moving homes quickly.
Final Thoughts
The smartest move right now is to run your own numbers with a lender instead of trusting headlines, because your rate, your down payment, and your local market matter more than any national average.