Existing home sales in the U.S. jumped 3.4% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million, according to the National Association of Realtors — the strongest monthly pace since December 2024.
But the number hiding inside the report matters more: the share of first-time buyers fell to 26%, the lowest reading since the NAR began tracking it in 2010.
That gap tells you who is actually buying right now — and it isn't young families stretching for their first mortgage.
The median existing-home price hit $398,400, up 3.3% from a year ago and the 20th consecutive month of year-over-year gains.
Inventory improved to a 3.5-month supply, but that's still well below the 5-to-6 months that signals a balanced market.
In plain terms, there are more listings than a year ago and still not enough to give buyers real leverage in most metros.
So why are sales climbing if affordability is this bad?
They made up 32% of February transactions, and investors grabbed another 16%.
Wealthier households sitting on equity from their current homes, or retirees downsizing without a mortgage, can absorb a 6.5%-ish 30-year fixed rate in a way a renter with $15,000 saved cannot.
For anyone trying to buy with a loan, the math is brutal.
At today's rates, a $400,000 home with 20% down runs roughly $2,020 a month in principal and interest — before property taxes, insurance, and HOA fees.
Add those in and you're often clearing $2,600.
That's the wall first-timers keep hitting, and it explains why the median first-time buyer age has crept toward 38.
Sellers aren't celebrating the way headlines suggest either.
The typical home sat on the market for 42 days in February, up from 34 a year earlier.
If you bought in 2021 at a 3% rate and need to move, you're trading a cheap mortgage for an expensive one — which is exactly why so many would-be sellers stay put and inventory stays tight.
What should you actually do with this information?
If you're buying this spring, get a fully underwritten pre-approval, not a soft one, and shop at least three lenders — rate spreads between them can easily run 0.5 percentage points, which is real money over 30 years.
Ask specifically about seller concessions; with days-on-market rising, more sellers will cover closing costs or buy down your rate to get a deal done.
If you're selling, price to the market, not to your neighbor's 2022 sale.
Overpricing in a 3.5-month-supply market means sitting for 60-plus days and then chasing the market down.
Every quarter-point cut in mortgage rates pulls roughly 2.5 million more households back into qualifying range, and that's the switch that could finally loosen this lock-in.
The honest read: this isn't a recovery, it's a reshuffling.
Transactions are happening, but they're flowing to people with cash and equity while first-timers wait on the sidelines for rates — or wages — to move.
Final Thoughts
Until one of those breaks, expect more months that look good in headlines and feel impossible at the kitchen table.