← Back to BillCut Daily

Municipal Bonds Are Paying More Than They Have in Years

Persona #1 · Vol: 0

Investors who normally ignore the sleepy corner of the market where cities and states borrow money are suddenly paying attention.

Yields on high-grade municipal bonds have climbed to levels not seen in over a decade, and for households sitting in the 24% federal bracket or higher, the tax math has flipped in a way that rarely happens.

Munis pay interest that's exempt from federal income tax, and often from state tax too if you buy bonds from your home state.

That exemption was easy to shrug off when munis yielded 1.5% and a Treasury paid 4%.

Now the raw yields are much closer, which means the tax-free version can leave you with more spendable cash than the taxable one.

A top-rated 10-year muni yielding around 3.3% is worth roughly 4.3% to someone in the 24% bracket, and about 4.7% to someone in the 32% bracket.

A comparable Treasury might pay somewhere in the low 4s before tax, and you owe federal tax on every dollar of that.

For someone in the 12% bracket, the Treasury usually still comes out ahead.

There's a second force pushing yields up: supply.

States and cities have been issuing a heavy calendar of new debt, and when there are more bonds for sale than there are buyers, prices fall and yields rise.

Add in uncertainty about future tax policy, which makes the exemption itself harder to value, and you get the wide spreads buyers are seeing now.

Municipal bonds carry real risks that get glossed over during yield-chasing moments.

A city can run into pension problems or a shrinking tax base, and credit quality varies enormously between a water authority in a growing suburb and a transit system in a declining one.

Individual bonds are also hard to sell before maturity without taking a haircut, and long-dated bonds lose value fast when rates rise.

For most households, the practical route is a low-cost muni bond fund or ETF rather than picking individual issues.

That spreads credit risk across hundreds of borrowers and lets you sell any day the market is open.

Just check the expense ratio and be aware that fund prices move with interest rates, so a fund you bought last year may show a loss on paper even while it pays steady tax-free income.

One timing note worth flagging: muni yields often look most attractive right before tax season, when investors rebalance and demand shifts.

If you're considering a move, compare the taxable-equivalent yield of a specific fund against a Treasury or corporate bond fund of similar duration.

That single calculation tells you more than any headline yield.

Our take: munis have gone from an afterthought to a genuinely competitive option for anyone in the 24% bracket or above with money they won't need for several years.

Final Thoughts

If your bracket is low or your time horizon is short, the tax break does far less work, and you're taking on credit and interest-rate risk for a benefit you may not collect.

Continue Reading